Cho là tụi Merrill Lynch phỏng đoán sai, giá vàng thay v́ xuống đến $1,000/ounce lại đi lên th́ vẫn c̣n lâu mới đạt được mức thời đầu năm 2013. Hiện nay một đống mỏ vàng trên thế giới ngừng hoạt động để chờ lúc giá vàng lên lại. Nghĩ lại mấy bố ở Việt Nam (đứng đầu là tên nửa Nobel B́nh) nhập vàng lúc nó $1,700/ounce.



Bank of America Merrill Lynch slashes gold call to $1,150 and warns it could get uglier
January 9, 2014, 7:08 AM

In one of the first, if not the first, calls on gold this year, Bank of America Merrill Lynch slashed its forecast for the shiny stuff by 11% to $1,150 an ounce on Thursday, with a warning it could get even uglier.
Gold plunged 28% in 2013 to just above $1,200, snapping a 12-year annual winning streak and recording its worst annual performance in nearly three decades. Silver, which also didn’t escape the chop from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, suffered a 36% loss in 2013, its worst since at least the early 1980s. The investment bank cut its forecast for silver by 21% to $18.38 an ounce.
On Nov. 26, the bank forecast gold for 2014 at $1,294 an ounce, and silver at $26.38 an ounce.
Strategist Michael Widmer said his biggest gold worry is a lack of buyer interest, as investors have been a marginal driver of prices in recent years. A gain of around 2% so far this year hasn’t really convinced him either.

“If investors stopped selling gold, prices could stabilize around $1,200/oz. Yet, this is not our base case and a more likely scenario is for investors to continue reducing their exposure. Our model suggest that this could take prices down to $1,000/oz.”
He adds that not even traditional buying of physical gold in India and China will be enough to keep prices from falling.
But gold bugs can cheer up somewhat, as all is not uber-gloomy at BofA Merrill.
Widmer says prices for gold could bottom out later this year. He reasons that a continued acceleration in the U.S. economy, tightening labor market and slowly rising inflation could trigger gold market players to increasingly adjust low inflation expectations, pricing in some unexpected inflation and luring back buyers.
The bottom line: Investors could see some “interesting entry points” for gold this year, he says.
Still from the “gold is pretty doomed camp,” Wednesday’s fairly hawkish set of minutes from the Fed’s December taper meeting was hardly a boon for gold, says Daily FX’s Ilya Spivak. Watch out, he says, for Thursday’s report on weekly jobless claims to drop to the lowest in five weeks, boosting the dollar and further eroding that anti-fiat demand for gold. Bigger jobs data lay in wait on Friday.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell...ld-get-uglier/