Cái phần ông Dr_Tran gạch dưới tôi không thấy đó là lư do chứng minh GHH là cs . Nguời CS thứ thiệt nằm trong VL th́ không có ai có bằng chứng và họ không dể ǵ bị lộ tẩy . Tôi đề nghị ông xin việc làm cho FBI để họ dạy ông phát hiện ai là người cộng sản thật sự trên các diễn đàn chống cộng .Originally Posted by DrTran
Bác Tran chỉ chụp được có một câu mà nói hoài, sao bác Tran sợ Gánh quá vậy, online mà.
Với lại bác Tran có rất nhiều fan nữa, Gánh chỉ có một ḿnh!. Vậy là bác ỷ đông hiếp yếu, phải có bảo vệ, bảo kê.:D
Nếu vậy làm sao Tran có thể hùng biện trước dân VN tháng 10 này!.:p
Lúc trước Tran nói tui là HVB.:cool:
Last edited by chichchoe; 18-09-2011 at 03:06 AM.
Bạn chichchoe không được vào đây xả rác. Ở những nơi khác nếu có xả rác th́ chỉ bị phạt điểm, quá lắm mới ban, c̣n topic này có một giá trị tham khảo và lưu trữ nhất định, bạn sẽ bị ban vĩnh viễn nếu xả rác nơi đây.
Dear Lalan, trả lời bạn tại đây:
http://www.vietlandnews.net/forum/sh...1119#post81119
Dear NewTrader, thật ra th́ trong cuộc họp thứ 3, 4 tuần này, 10 FOMC members mới bỏ phiếu thông qua statement of policies:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm
Hiện nay theo thăm ḍ có khoảng 3 người chống QE3, tuy nhiên, đó là trước khi có tin không có jobs nào được tạo ra hồi tháng 8, và tuần trước thất nghiệp bị tăng vọt.
Các báo cáo của FED Phila và FED NY đều tệ hại, nói chung là như bạn viết, tin KT toàn xấu tệ hại.
FED phải can thiệp thôi, và do là nơi coi Monetary policies, vũ khí mạnh nhất - và hiện nay là duy nhất - của FED chỉ là QE3, chứ lăi suất đă gần bằng 0 rồi, không lẽ hạ xuống thành con số âm.
Bên Cộng ḥa đang chống QE3 mănh liệt, v́ họ đang chống bất cứ chính sách nào làm lợi cho Hoa kỳ.
Nhiều khi tôi nghĩ, cho Al Qaeda vào bỏ phiếu trong Quốc hội Mỹ, có lẽ họ c̣n làm hại Mỹ ít hơn là phe CH. Phe này đang phản quốc 1 cách vô cùng triệt để, kịch liệt.
Hy vọng FED sẽ v́ quốc gia mà tung ra QE3, và tung ra khoảng 900 tỉ USD.
Đó cũng chỉ là 6% GDP Mỹ mà thôi, theo như bên VN th́ chỉ là 5 tỉ USD, tức 100 ngàn tỉ đồng, đang khi CSVN đă tuyên bố sẽ tung ra 300 ngàn tỉ đồng từ nay đến cuối năm.
Số 900 tỉ USD nhỏ thôi, so với quy mô KT Mỹ, sẽ không làm lạm phát bao nhiêu cả, nhưng thị trường sẽ phản ứng thái quá, làm stocks, vàng, Forex tăng vọt.
Tuần tới, giá vàng có thể tiếp tục suy yếu?
http://dvt.vn/20110918121629777p47c8...uc-suy-yeu.htm
Dear Nông Dân Nổi Dậy, hiện chỉ có thể suy đoán, chứ không ai biết chắc sẽ có QE3 hay không, và bao nhiêu.
Chính FOMC members cũng chưa biết, họ sẽ discuss all options, cân nhắc tác động KT, chính trị, tài chánh trong ngắn và dài hạn. Rồi sẽ bỏ phiếu vào chiều thứ 4.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44276918/QE3_...ar_End_Roubini
"...He [Nouriel Roubini] noted that during the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting the Fed "discussed wide range of other options if the economy weakens" and further weak data could "be the trigger" for the Fed to take action at its next meeting Sept. 20..."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...itative-easing
"...Federal Reserve chief admits he is prepared to start third round of quantitative easing if US economy continues to flag..."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...77P37920110826
".."We continue to think the odds are tilted slightly in favor of the Fed taking further stimulative action at the next FOMC meeting [9/20-21], likely altering the composition of the Fed's balance sheet," JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli said..."
Sau kỳ họp này, phải đến tháng 11 mới họp lại, do đó nếu t́nh h́nh KT tháng 9 quá xấu th́ sẽ không kịp trở tay trong tháng 10:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...ccalendars.htm
Do đó, tôi đồng ư với kinh tế gia Feroli của JP Morgan trên đây, rằng FOMC sẽ cho ra QE3, tuy là theo tôi xác suất cho việc này lên tới 85%, thay v́ chỉ "tilted slightly" về hướng này như ông này phát biểu.
Khi ông này phát biểu vào tháng 8, th́ chưa có tin "không có đến 1 job được tạo ra vào tháng 8", và thất nghiệp tuần rồi quá tệ hại, tháng rồi cũng vậy.
Tôi nghĩ đây là thời gian thích hợp, do KT cần được kích thích để chuẩn bị cho các ngày lễ cuối năm.
Nếu chờ đến kỳ họp sau vào tháng 11 th́ sẽ quá trễ cho các ngày holidays, v́ dân Mỹ cần tiền, việc làm cho ngày lễ; họ càng có jobs sớm th́ càng có tiền chi cho các ngày lễ, qua đó giúp tiêu thụ hàng, thay v́ không có jobs để rồi phải xin food stamps, tiền thất nghiệp, vào các ngày lễ th́ không tốt cho bất cứ ai.
Last edited by DrTran; 18-09-2011 at 10:01 AM.
"...Trong những ngày cuối tuần, đă có một số đơn vị kinh doanh vàng xin được nhập khẩu vàng. Theo nhiều nhà đầu tư dự đoán, nếu các doanh nghiệp nhập vàng đợt này với giá thấp th́ khả năng trong thời gian tới giá vàng trong nước sẽ sát với giá thế giới hơn..."
http://www.vef.vn/2011-09-18-tuan-to...oc-co-the-giam
Bài này hay quá, quote lại cả bài:
Week Ahead: Fed Expected to Launch New Program While Europe Debt Troubles Bubble
Published: Friday, 16 Sep 2011 | 7:52 PM ET
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44556652
By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive News Editor
The Fed in the week ahead is widely expected to pull the trigger on a new easing program, as the European debt crisis continues to boil.
The housing market will also be a focus when new and existing home sales data is released Tuesday and Wednesday. New data this past week showed a jump in foreclosure starts, signaling that a big wave of foreclosed properties will hit the struggling housing market early next year.
The Dow and S&P 500 had their best week since July and second best week since July 2010, as European officials showed support for Greece. The Nasdaq did even better — jumping 6.3 percent, for its best week since July, 2009.
Market expectations are high that the Fed will announce a new program — dubbed "operation twist" — at the end of its two-day meeting Wednesday.
"Twist" is different than the much larger scale "QE2" quantitative easing program which involved the purchase of $600 billion in Treasury securities. Fed watchers expect this program to raise the duration of the securities the Fed holds, not the amount. The program, in theory, could reduce long-term interest rates as the Fed buys more securities in the middle and longer end of the yield curve.
"It's not their job to bail out the whole world, but next week there's high expectations for the Fed," said Nomura Americas Treasury strategist George Goncalves. The Fed this past week joined with the European Central Bank and others to provide more dollar liquidity for euro zone financial institutions.
Meanwhile, European finance ministers were to continue meeting in Poland over the weekend. Some traders were looking for the officials to provide some clarity on the purchases of sovereign debt, which so far has fallen to the ECB. The euro zone countries are in the process of voting on enhancing the powers of the European Financial Stabilization Facility bailout fund, or EFSF.
In the coming week, the IMF meets in Washington and Europe will certainly be on the agenda. Ahead of that meeting, representatives of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are expected to meet to discuss whether they can help the European situation.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will be in New York Monday and is expected to visit the New York Stock Exchange. He is in the U.S. to speak at the United Nations General Assembly and will meet with IMF managing director Christine Lagarde and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.
President Obama is expected on Monday to put forth a proposal seeking hundreds of billions of dollars in Medicare and Medicaid savings. The president is expected to propose $300 billion to $500 billion in entitlement savings over the next 10 years.
Fed Twists Again
But the Fed remains a top focus for markets. Pimco's Tony Crescenzi said the wobbling economy is a factor that will help push the Fed into "operation twist," named for a Fed program from the early 1960s.
"The Fed will likely attempt to spur another leap of faith, pushing investors to move out the risk spectrum and away form riskless assets, and deposits, to support asset prices, boost wealth and aid the deleveraging process," said Crescenzi, senior strategist at Pimco.
Crescenzi said the Fed could direct its current Treasury purchases toward the long end of the curve. It currently invests roughly $20 billion per month in Treasurys, using the runoff from its mortgage portfolio. Or, it could decide to sell some of its shorter duration holdings and repurchase longer duration securities.
"Bernanke has done nothing to dissuade markets of the notion that there will be some form of 'operation twist.' He had opportunities. Therefore, the market believes there will be a form of 'operation twist' next week," said Crescenzi.
In the bond market, as traders debate exactly what the Fed will do, they will also debate the Fed's focus. Some believe the Fed is likely to buy the middle of the curve — 5- and 7-year notes — as well as the 10-year but avoid the longest duration, 30-year bond, which would be more difficult to unwind.
"They're going to overweight the 7- to 15-year part of the curve. They're going to focus their money there," said Goncalves. He said the Fed will also continue to buy some 30-years, as it currently does when it reinvests its mortgage proceeds. Goncalves expects the Fed to do the "light" version of "operation twist," where it would just use the existing $20 billion a month and not sell its short duration holdings.
Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Capital Management, said he does not expect the Fed to embark on any programs beyond the "twist." Some analysts had been looking for the Fed to discuss a third quantitative easing program in the next few months.
"I think the politics are such that the Fed basically is hog tied. 'Operation twist' is not new stimulus. It's carrying on. What the Fed is trying to do is flatten the curve so they bring longer term rates down...you can't solve a monetary bubble with monetary policy so I t think it's a little disheartening," Bernstein said.
Whither Stocks?
The Dow in the past week rose 4.7 percent to 11,509, and the S&P 500 was up 5.4 percent to 1216. Nasdaq rose 154 points to 2622.
Bernstein said he remains cautious on equities. He said investors are too focused on the negative tone of politics, and "the pointing fingers" in Washington. "It's detrimental to people's portfolios to listen to these guys," he said
Even so, he is still looking for a catalyst to take the market higher, and for now he does not expect the market make much progress by year end. "Point-to-point, I don't think people should expect the market to do a lot, but we'll have technical rallies both up and down through the end of the year," he said.
Even so, stocks are getting to attractive levels. "Valuations are fantastic but that doesn't mean anything. You don't buy on value. You have to wait for a catalyst. Even sentiment is great. Just look at the price of gold. People think gold is the only thing you can invest in," Bernstein said. However, the fundamental indicators that he watches are mixed, including jobless claims which once more increased this past week.
"Every early cycle is dominated by the government. Then what happens is the government hands off the ball to the private sector, but this time they fumbled it. I think what's happened is they didn't do anything to promote investment spending in the United States," he said.
"We are looking for the catalyst that will get us out of the funk. The most likely thing that could happen, which nobody expects, including me, is that the private sector picks up that fumbled ball and actually starts to do something. I do not buy the issues of health care and regulatory uncertainty," he said.
There are a few earnings reports in the coming week, and there could be any number of companies commenting on their third-quarter results.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/15/mark...d=HP_Highlight
"...Greece is expected to default. Portugal and Ireland are very likely.
...In Greece, credit default swaps have become prohibitively expensive. The sellers of these swaps, or contracts, are currently demanding that buyers pay $6 million up front to protect $10 million worth of Greek bonds, according to data from Markit.
"This implies that there's a 100% chance of default," said Anthony Sanders, a professor of finance at George Mason University.
...A typical credit default swap functions more like Portugal's swaps. Sellers of Portuguese CDSs currently demand that a buyer pay $1.13 million per year for 5 years worth of insurance on $10 million in bonds.
In July 2010, buyers would've paid just $284,000 per year for the same contract. For Ireland, Italy and Spain, the annual costs are now $918,000, $508,000 and $425,000 respectively.
After Greece, investors bet that Portugal would be the next member of the European Union to fall, with a default probability of 66%. For Ireland, that figure slips to 51%; the chances of Spain and Italy defaulting are 33% and 28% respectively, according to Markit..."
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